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Global Conflicts and Shifting Geopolitics: A RAND-Informed Special Report
JPCE Watchdog News Report | January 17, 2025
Introduction:
Welcome back to JPCE Watchdog News Report, now part of JPCE Watchdog Ministries. Don’t forget to like, share, subscribe, and follow us on Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, and Rumble.
Tonight’s report covers the most pressing global conflicts, RAND Corporation’s latest research on counterinsurgency and global stability, and the potential ramifications of political shifts on international security.
RAND Corporation, a renowned global policy think tank, conducts its research through a rigorous process of data collection, analysis, and peer review, ensuring the highest standards of accuracy and reliability.
1. Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement: A True Path to Peace or Temporary Truce?
The recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, brokered by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, represents a significant shift in the Middle East conflict landscape. This agreement, coming after over a year of war, aims to facilitate a phased prisoner exchange, humanitarian relief, and Israeli military withdrawal from parts of Gaza.
Key Elements of the Agreement:
* Ceasefire Duration: 42-day truce, potentially extendable if conditions are met.
* Hostage Exchange: 33 Israeli hostages were released in return for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (excluding participants of the October 7, 2023 attack).
* Israeli Military Withdrawal: Pullback from densely populated areas with monitored redeployment.
* Humanitarian Aid Oversight:
* Rafah border crossing set to open for civilian evacuations, limited to 50 wounded individuals per day under strict Israeli and Egyptian oversight.
RAND’s Counterinsurgency Perspective on the Ceasefire
The RAND CPA614-2 Report provides crucial insights into ceasefires in asymmetric conflicts like Israel-Hamas. According to RAND’s research on counterinsurgency and stability operations, successful peace-building requires:
* A unified command structure: Historically, ceasefires fail when fragmented leadership leads to conflicting orders (as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan).
* Intense external mediation: RAND’s research highlights the need for long-term international oversight to prevent militant groups from using ceasefires as a tactical pause before resuming hostilities.
* Clear political frameworks: The May 2024 agreement between Israel and Hamas lacks a comprehensive political roadmap, raising concerns about its long-term viability.
What’s Next?
International analysts warn that without a clear governance transition, Gaza could face internal power struggles similar to those in post-withdrawal Iraq (2005-2011) or post-Soviet Afghanistan (1992-1996). The ceasefire is a short-term solution, but the real test will be sustaining peace beyond the agreed truce. If the ceasefire were to fail, it could lead to a resurgence of violence and a return to the cycle of conflict, underscoring the critical need for a comprehensive and sustainable peace plan.
2. Russia-Ukraine War: Prolonged Conflict and Cost-Imposing Strategies
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, RAND’s RB10014 Report on Overextending and Unbalancing Russia provides valuable insights into how military, economic, and ideological strategies shape the battlefield.
RAND’s Findings on Russia’s Strategic Weaknesses:
* Economic Pressure: U.S. energy policies to increase global oil and gas supply limit Russia’s revenue streams, weakening its war efforts.
* Sanctions and Financial Constraints: RAND assesses that comprehensive financial sanctions, particularly on Russia’s defense sector, could impose long-term economic damage.
* Military Overstretch: Russia is overextending its forces by fighting a two-front war:
* Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Eastern Donetsk
* NATO’s increasing presence in the Baltic region
Current Battlefield Dynamics:
* Bakhmut and Kherson remain contested as Ukraine leverages Western-supplied weaponry (e.g., U.S. ATACMS missiles and German Leopard tanks).
* Russia’s recruitment crisis: Reports indicate that Moscow is relying on forced conscription from occupied Ukrainian territories, raising questions about troop morale.
What’s Next?
RAND’s report suggests that Russia’s military resilience, a key factor in the global security landscape, depends on its ability to maintain political cohesion and economic endurance. The RAND strategy of cost-imposing measures—such as increasing U.S. support for Ukraine—could intensify Russia’s vulnerabilities in the long run, but the future remains uncertain.
Key Characteristics of Attrition Warfare in Ukraine
1. Prolonged Fighting & Stalemate
* The war began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and has turned into a long-term battle of endurance.
* Frontlines have mainly remained static in many regions, with neither side achieving a breakthrough in recent months.
2. Massive Losses on Both Sides
* High casualty rates and destruction of equipment continue, with estimates of tens of thousands of soldiers lost on both sides.
* Ukraine faces shortages in workforce and ammunition, while Russia absorbs high losses but has a larger population and military reserves to sustain the fight.
3. Artillery & Drone Dominance
* Both countries rely heavily on artillery barrages, precision strikes, and drone warfare, reinforcing the attritional nature of combat.
* Russia’s drone and missile attacks target Ukraine’s energy and infrastructure, while Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons to strike Russian supply lines.
4. Economic and Resource Drain
* Russia’s economy, despite sanctions, is heavily militarized and geared toward sustaining the war effort.
* Ukraine depends on Western financial and military aid, making continued support from NATO and the EU crucial for its survival.
5. Western Aid vs. Russian Industry
* Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting hinges on sustained Western military support (weapons, ammunition, financial aid).
* Russia has adapted its defense industry for mass production of firearms, with growing support from Iran, China (indirectly), and North Korea.
6. Winter Warfare & Defensive Lines
* The war has seen multiple phases of trench warfare, minefields, and defensive fortifications reminiscent of World War I-style tactics.
* Ukrainian offensives have struggled against Russia’s layered defenses, making rapid advances costly.
7. Political Will & Morale
* Both countries are locked in a battle of willpower. Ukraine fights for survival, while Russia seeks to outlast Kyiv and Western resolve.
* Domestic political pressures in both nations (and among Ukraine’s allies) play a critical role in determining how long each side can endure.
Potential Outcomes?
* Continued Stalemate: The war could continue for years without significantly shifting military capabilities or strategy.
* Breakthrough via New Tactics/Weapons: The war could shift if either side develops a game-changing strategy (such as Ukraine’s use of long-range strikes or Russia’s improved offensive operations).
* Negotiated Settlement?: While unlikely in the short term, exhaustion on both sides may eventually push them toward diplomatic talks—though neither appears ready to concede yet.
This war ultimately tests who can last longer—militarily, economically, and politically.
3. The U.S. Political Shift and Its Global Implications
With Donald Trump preparing for his second inauguration, the global order is set for another geopolitical shift. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy could lead to significant changes in:
* U.S. involvement in Ukraine: Will Trump cut military aid, as some reports suggest?
* Middle East diplomacy: A more rigid stance on Iran, possibly undermining current Israel-Gulf normalization talks.
* China-U.S. tensions: Will Trump reignite trade wars or escalate military posturing in the Indo-Pacific?
RAND’s Long-Term Analysis of U.S. Global Strategy
* NATO Relations: RAND research shows that weakening U.S. commitments to NATO could embolden Russia.
* China Policy: Trump’s previous economic tariffs on China had mixed results—while they hurt China’s tech industry, they also strained U.S. alliances in Asia.
* Middle East Engagement: RAND findings suggest that a U.S. pullback from diplomacy could worsen regional conflicts, especially in Lebanon and Syria.
What’s Next?
A more isolationist U.S. policy could force Europe and Asia to develop independent military strategies, reducing U.S. influence in NATO and the Pacific.
4. Emerging Conflict Zones: The Next Global Flashpoints
Beyond Ukraine and Gaza, several regions are at risk of significant conflict escalation in 2025. This potential for conflict escalation should cause concern for all those interested in global security.
Somalia: The Al-Shabaab Resurgence
* RAND studies on counterterrorism indicate that the withdrawal of the African Union stabilization forces could embolden Al-Shabaab, leading to a Taliban-like takeover.
* U.S. and UN counterterrorism strategies struggle to contain insurgency growth in East Africa.
South China Sea: Taiwan and U.S.-China Tensions
* China’s naval expansion in the South China Sea is alarming U.S. allies. RAND’s report on maritime security suggests that China’s increasing “gray zone tactics” could lead to military confrontation by 2026.
Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea
* Yemen’s Houthi rebels have escalated attacks on international shipping routes, disrupting global trade. RAND’s assessment of hybrid warfare tactics suggests that this could trigger Western military retaliation.
Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead
RAND’s extensive research on counterinsurgency, nation-building, and economic warfare reveals a world on the brink of further instability. Whether Israel’s ceasefire holds, Ukraine withstands Russia, or new conflicts emerge in Asia and Africa, global security is at a critical juncture.
Key Takeaways:
1. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is a temporary solution—without a long-term governance plan, the conflict could reignite.
2. Russia is economically vulnerable, but Ukraine’s survival depends on sustained Western support.
3. U.S. political shifts will redefine alliances, with Trump’s foreign policy expected to reshape global military strategies.
4. New conflict zones (Somalia, Taiwan, Red Sea) require urgent attention to prevent full-scale wars.
Closing Statement
That’s all for tonight’s JPCE Watchdog News Report! Like, share, and subscribe on Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, and Rumble. Stay informed, stay aware, and see you in the following report.
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